Is third COVID-19 wave finally starting to ebb in Mumbai? Fourth straight day of declining cases hints at answer

Is Mumbai seeing a downward graph in the daily number of COVID-19 cases? After witnessing a record high of daily infections of 20,971 on 7 ...

Is Mumbai seeing a downward graph in the daily number of COVID-19 cases?

After witnessing a record high of daily infections of 20,971 on 7 January, the city has been witnessing a drop in COVID cases, which doctors and medical experts believe could be a flattening of the third wave of pandemic.

Coronavirus in Mumbai

On 11 January, the financial capital of the country witnessed a fourth straight day of downward trend as it recorded 11,647 new COVID-19 cases, a drop of 2,001 from the previous day.

The city reported 2,001 fewer cases than Monday despite 2,855 more COVID-19 tests carried out in the last 24 hours.
Out of the 11,647 new cases, 83 percent cases, or 9,667, are asymptomatic, and only 851 patients have been admitted to hospitals, while just 76 are on oxygen support, said the bulletin.

A day before, Mumbai had reported 13,648 COVID-19 cases on the back of 59,342 tests, and also five fatalities.

The coronavirus positivity rate in the financial capital also dipped to 18.75 percent from over 23 percent a day ago.
The rate indicates the percentage of people who test positive for the virus of those overall who have been tested.

Here’s a chart that shows the daily cases for the past five days.

12chart

Experts speak

Municipal commissioner Iqbal Singh Chahal said daily COVID-19 cases and positivity rate have came down significantly in the last few days.

"Mumbai's positivity came down from 30 percent to 20 per cent in the last two days. Daily cases are down from 20,700 to 11,647 in the last four days," he said.

Dr Shashank Joshi, member of the Maharashtra's Covid Task Force, said that going by the numbers the city is reporting, Mumbai may have crossed its peak and the COVID-19 wave could be flattening soon.

“Yesterday’s numbers were clearly showing a positivity rate of around 25 per cent. We are expecting those numbers to drop further,” he was quoted as saying to News18.

“In the last three to four days, we have observed a trend that suggests that the number of cases could be flattening for three reasons: One, a lot of people are now at home and they are self-isolating and not testing. Second, a lot of people are self-testing and not reporting and third, we don’t know the true numbers that are being reported. Having said this, the true yardstick of this tsunami-like third wave is going to be the people who are getting admitted to the hospitals due to COVID-19, not with COVID-19 – there is a difference between the two,” he added in the interview.

When asked if the peak has passed in Mumbai, he was hesitant to give a direct answer. “We don’t know. We may be peaking now or this may just be a lull before the storm. We will not know this before the next two weeks,” he said.

Suresh Kakani, additional municipal commissioner of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation speaking to Hindustan Times said, “It looks like the cases are stabilising but we will have to wait for this week before commenting on whether we have reached the peak."

With inputs from agencies

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