We are into the second half of February and winter is all good to go. South India, in fact, is already witnessing warm days, though it will take some time to make its presence felt in northern, central and eastern parts of the country. A notable rise in daytime temperatures in the past week shows we are already into the spring season.
Spring in India is generally a short time period with comfortable weather conditions and a phase of winter to summer transition. It might last for a month in Central and Eastern India or up to 45 days in North India.
From 13-19 February, clear and dry weather is observed in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and North East India. Precipitation in the mentioned states were almost negligible in the past week.
Parts of Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Vidarbha region of Maharashtra recorded some rains for one or two days in the week.
Rainfall on 13th February till 8:30 am (Kerala & Tamil Nadu)
Vedaranyam 80mm
Kodiyakarai 63mm
Thirupoondi 55mm
Vellankani 54mm
Tiruthuraipoondi 53mm
Neyyattinkara AWS 59mm
West Kallada AWS 42mm
Konni 38mm
Thiruvananthapuram 12mm
TVM AP 50mm
Rainfall Ending 17 February 8:30 am in Kanyakumari Ghats
Mullankinavilai 79 mm
Thirparappu 87 mm
Pechiparai 56 mm
Chittar B 56 mm
Perunchani 47 mm
Chittar A 42 mm
Warmth finally made its way into North India this week. Meanwhile the night temperatures are still slightly below normal. Under the influence of warm southern winds day temperature saw a sharp rise on Friday, i.e 18 February, in Delhi and National Capital Region taking it to above normal category:
Recorded maximum temperature in Delhi-NCR
Pitampura 29.5°C (+5°)
Najafgarh 29.0°C (+5°)
Lodhi Road 28.9°C (+5°)
Ridge 28.5°C (+4°)
Safdarjung 28.4°C (+4°)
Sonipat 28.2°C (-)
Aya Nagar 27.8°C (+3°)
Noida 27.8°C (-)
Manesar 27.7°C (-)
Rohtak 27.6°C (+3°)
Jafarpur 27.5°C (+3°)
Meerut 27.0°C (+3°)
Gurgaon 26.8°C (+3°)
Narela 26.6°C (+2°)
Mayur Vihar 26.4°C (+2°)
The warm southern winds went up in the hills and temperature reached up in years for some stations. Dharamsala in Himachal Pradesh recorded a maximum temperature of 23.0°c on 18 February, making it the highest recorded daytime Temperature for the month of February after 2008. On 28 February 2008 it was recorded as 23.6°C.
Meteorological subdivision wise winter rainfall from 1 January to 19 February
• Northwest India: Actual 90.9mm against the normal of 63.1mm, +44% departure from Normal.
• East and North East India: Actual 61.3mm against the normal of 39.6mm, +55% departure from Normal.
• Central India: Actual 25.4mm against the normal of 13.3mm, +91% departure from Normal.
•South Peninsula: Actual 23.4mm against the normal of 13.3mm, +76% departure from Normal.
All India Weather Forecast from 20 February to 26 February
• Under the influence of a moderately active Western Disturbance during 22-23 February and another Western Disturbance in quick succession during 25-26 February, wet weather is expected across the hilly states of North India in the coming week. Mid-upper to upper reaches of the Himalayas to record fresh moderate to heavy snowfall while rainfall of moderate intensity to be observed in lower to mid-level hills.
• In the presence of Western Disturbance a cyclonic circulation is expected to induce over north Rajasthan by the evening of 22 February; it will attract moisture feeding South West winds from Arabian sea which will further strengthen the system and impact with isolated rains in parts of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and up to Delhi during 22-23 February.
• The Western Disturbance from last week will continue its impact over North East India early in this week. Fairly widespread light to moderate rains is expected in all the North East, while parts of Arunachal Pradesh might witness heavy precipitation along with fresh snowfall accumulation over the higher reaches.
• Western disturbances will have no major impact in the Central and Southern parts of the country this week.
• Clear and dry weather along with warmer daytime temperatures to be observed in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Goa, Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
Region-wise weather forecast from 20-26 Feb
North India
Significant Weather Synopsis
• Moderately active Western Disturbance during 22-23 February.
• Induced cyclonic circulation during 22-23 February.
• Another Western Disturbance on 25-26 February.
• Cool Northwest winds on 20-21 February.
• Warm and moist South West winds during 22-26 February.
Weather forecast for hilly states
During this week, an impactful Western Disturbance is set to affect hilly states. During 22-26 February we expect fresh moderate to heavy snowfall over the higher reaches of Kashmir, Leh, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand; mid and lower Himalayas including Shimla, Srinagar, Nainital to witness light to moderate rainfall only.
As the temperature is on a higher side, now the precipitation type will be mixed: Rains in the beginning followed by snow later; lesser stations will record snow precipitation, whereas rains will be covered at most stations.
Wet weather, cloudy skies to result in below normal maximum temperature throughout the upcoming week over the hilly states. Overall Above Normal Precipitation to be recorded in the coming week.
Weather forecast for Plains
Under the influence of cool North-West winds, pleasant weather is expected in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh on Sunday and Monday. As a cyclonic circulation is expected to induce over north Rajasthan by 22 February, it will make sure warm and moist South-West winds travel in plains which will result in a sudden rise in minimum and maximum during 22 to 26 February. Later in the week day time temperatures may reach 30°C in Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, north Rajasthan and parts of south Punjab. South Rajasthan to cross 35°C.
Under the influence of Western Disturbance, induced cyclonic circulation scattered light to moderate rains and thunderstorms to occur in Punjab and over isolated parts of Haryana, Delhi and north Rajasthan during 22 February night and on 23 February. Once again sporadic rains will visit the plains around 26 February. To note the spread of rains will be very limited, not as widespread as typical winter rains hence rains might skip many areas. Above-normal day temperature
Expected minimum and maximum temperature from 20-26 February
• Punjab: 7.0 to 11.0°C, 23.0 to 29.0°C.
• Haryana: 8.0 to 13.0°C, 24.0 to 31.0°C
• Rajasthan: 9.0 to 16.0°C, 28.0 to 36.0°C
• Delhi NCR: 9.0 to 14.0°C, 25.0 to 31.0°C
• Uttar Pradesh: 8.0 to 15.0°C, 26.0 to 31.0°C.
Central India
Significant Weather Synopsis
• Cool North West winds early in the week.
• Warm East/South East winds return later in the week.
Under the influence of cool North-West winds the nights are expected to stay cool in most parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra; also, daytime temperature may not rise for the next three days.
Due to change in wind direction, Easterlies/ Southeasterly will lead to rise in day and night temperature by 1-3°C from current levels in Central India during 23-26 February. Days will be slightly hot in interiors and west coast of Maharashtra as some parts might witness maximum temperature around 35°C.
In absence of any significant weather systems, dry and clear weather is expected in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra in this week; no significant precipitation to be recorded.
Expected minimum and maximum temperature from 20-26 February
• Gujarat: 14.0 to 19.0°C, 29.0 to 35.0°C.
• Maharashtra: 12.0 to 21.0°C, 28.0 to 35.0°C.
• Madhya Pradesh: 9.0 to 15.0°C, 25.0 to 33.0°C.
• Chhattisgarh: 11.0 to 17.0°C, 25.0 to 34.0°C.
East India
Significant Weather Synopsis
• Cool Northwest winds from 20 to 23 February.
• Easterly winds from 24 February.
• Some Impact of passing Western Disturbance.
Under the influence of passing Western Disturbance and Southerly winds on lower levels from the Bay of Bengal will induce thunder clouds in North East India during 20-23 February. Fairly widespread light to moderate rains is expected in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Manipur. Some parts of Arunachal Pradesh to witness heavy rains and snowfall accumulating at higher reaches during next 2 days. Another round of wet weather to return to the North East by 25-26 February due to fresh Western Disturbance.
In absence of any significant weather system, mainly dry and clear weather is expected in most parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha from 20-24 February. Pleasant days and cool nights will continue in the presence of North-West winds.
Easterlies will dominate the region by 24 February. It will lead to rise in temperature and warm weather during 25-26 February. Passing Western Disturbance and unstable weather due to rise in day temperature might result in scattered thunderstorms in West Bengal, Odisha and foothills of Bihar on 25-26 February.
Expected minimum and maximum temperature from 20-26 February
• Bihar: 9.0 to 15.0°C, 24.0 to 30.0°C.
• Jharkhand: 11.0 to 17.0°C, 25.0 to 32.0°C.
• West Bengal: 12.0 to 18.0°C, 24.0 to 31.0°C.
•Odisha: 12.0 to 18.0°C, 27.0 to 34.0°C.
•North East India: 5.0 to 12.0°C, 19.0 to 25.0°C.
South India
Significant Weather Synopsis
• Dry and hot weather throughout this week.
• Winds from East/South East.
In absence of any significant weather systems, mainly dry and clear weather will prevail in the southern peninsula this week. Goa, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh will not witness any rainfall activities this week. Some parts of the southern Tip of Tamil Nadu and parts of Kerala might witness some rains and thunderstorms after a hot afternoon due to locally induced clouds which is a common feature in the region during the summer season. Night times to be Pleasant as minimum temperature is expected in the range of 20-25°C in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, while below 20°C in parts Karnataka and Telangana. Days will be hot in the interiors of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh as maximum temperature will be around 35°C.
Expected minimum and maximum temperature from 20-26 February
• Telangana: 16.0 to 20.0°C, 30.0 to 36.0°C.
• Andhra Pradesh: 20.0 to 25.0C, 28.0 to 35.0°C.
•Goa: 21.0 to 23.0°C, 32.0 to 35.0°C.
• Karnataka: 15.0 to 22.0°C, 27.0 to 34.0°C.
• Tamil Nadu: 21.0 to 26.0°C, 30.0 to 37.0°C.
•Kerala: 22.0 to 26.0°C, 34.0 to 37.0°C.
The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.
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