The weather report: How Delhi is all set to break all-time heatwave record for April


It has been another typical summer week for India as many parts of the country face heatwaves and storms at the same time. Most parts of north and central India started this week with above normal day temperatures when Daltonganj in Jharkhand recorded 45.2°C maximum temperature on 19 April which was the highest April temperature since 2010. The all-time record for April is 46.5°C on 18 April 2010.

Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh recorded 45.2°C maximum temperature on 18 April, narrowly missing the April all-time record of 45.4°C set on 15 April 2019.

Both the base weather observatories of the national capital, Safdarjung and Palam, reported the season's highest maximum temperature at 42.6°C on 19 April, leading to heatwave conditions in Delhi.

Delhi has registered eight heatwave days in the first 19 days of April. The highest number of heatwave days were observed in the capital in April 2010 when 11 days had a maximum temperature anomaly at +4.5°C or above. By the end this month Delhi is expected to surpass the record of 2010.

As the week progressed Western Disturbance started appearing over western Himalayas. The hilly states received on and off rainfall for many days this week and temperatures remained under check. Even some higher reaches of Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh witnessed light snowfall activities. Many parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh observed cloudy skies along with dust raising winds on 20 and 21 April, but the occurrence of rainfall was at a few spots only.

In the past week, east and North East India observed occasional fierce weather known as Kal Baisakhi.

Under the influence of Western Disturbance, Lower-level Wind Discontinuity and moisture feeding winds from the Bay of Bengal, many parts of Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Jharkhand, Odisha and Chhattisgarh reported strong thunderstorms, winds up to 80-90 km/h and deadly hail storms damaging property in many areas.

As per the IMD data, total pre-monsoon rains in India from 1 March to 22 April:

• India as a whole recorded a total of 39.5mm rainfall against the average of 57.4mm, departure from normal Stands at -31 per cent.

• Southern Peninsula: Actual 48.9mm against the average of 37.1mm, +32 per cent departure from normal.

• East & North East India: Actual 161.3mm against the average of 147.5mm, +9 per cent departure from normal.

• North West India: Actual 9.0mm against the average of 70.2mm, -87 per cent departure from normal.

• Central India: Actual 4.2mm against the average of 14.8mm, -71 per cent departure from normal.

All-India weather forecast till 30 April

• This week has seen the return of anti-cyclonic circulation flow over the Indian mainland. In that case, hot and dry westerly winds take charge in most parts of north and central India and can result in a sudden heatwave outbreak during 26 to 30 April. As we are almost at the fag end of April, temperatures are expected to reach peak summer levels in this spell of heatwave. One expects the soaring temperature of 46-48°C in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, the Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh, and in Vidarbha region of Maharashtra. Parts of Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Gujarat, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are expected to observe maximum temperature in the range of 44-47°C by the end of April. Maximum temperature anomalies likely to be 4-9°C above normal will fall in the heatwave to severe heatwave category.

• Two weak Western Disturbances will appear over western Himalayas on 25 and 28 April, resulting in a moderate rainfall spell over Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh. Impact of Western Disturbances will remain restricted to hills; there will be little or no impact in weather over the plains.

• Following the trend of the past week, moderate to heavy intensity pre-monsoon rainfall activities will continue in North East India this week.

• Rainfall activities will take a slight dip in the southern peninsula this week, less rains to be observed in Telangana, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, but evening thunderstorms will continue to impact Kerala, Western Ghats of Tamil Nadu and south-west Karnataka this week.

Region-wise weather forecast till 30 April

North India

Significant Weather Synopsis

• Two weak Western Disturbances to impact western Himalayas.

• Dry and hot westerly winds in plains may lead to heatwave to severe heatwave conditions.

Under the influence of two Western Disturbances on 25 and 28 April, many parts of Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and the higher reaches of Uttarakhand are expected to receive light-to-moderate rains and thundershowers. Some peaks and passes may record fresh light to moderate snowfall during this spell.

As the anti-cyclonic circulation returns, we expect dry, windy and hot weather in plains of north India this week. Maximum temperatures are likely to touch peak summer between Tuesday and Saturday, mercury might soar up to 48°C in western Rajasthan and south Uttar Pradesh, whereas Delhi may record maximum temperature in the range of 44-46°C.

Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature Range till 30 April

• Punjab: 19 to 25.0°C, 39.0 to 44.0°C.

• Haryana: 21.0 to 27.0°C, 41.0 to 46.0°C.

• Rajasthan: 24.0 to 32.0°C, 44.0 to 48.0°C.

• Delhi NCR: 21.0 to 26.0°C, 42.0 to 46.0°C.

• Uttar Pradesh: 25.0 to 33.0°C, 43.0 to 48.0°C.

Central India

Significant Weather Synopsis

• Dry and hot northerly winds.

• Anti-cyclonic circulation dominance.

Under the influence of anti-cyclonic circulation, the region will observe hot and dry weather this week; very hot northerly winds from Thar desert will keep temperatures higher than normal at most stations.

As the heatwave is expected to intensify in central India, we estimate the maximum temperature to reach up to 47°C in stations of Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh by mid-week.  Parts of Gujarat, central Maharashtra, and Marathwada may see day temperatures go up to 45°C.

Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature range till 30 April

• Gujarat: 25.0 to 32.0°C, 40.0 to 45.0°C.

• Maharashtra: 23.0 to 30.0°C, 37.0 to 47.0°C.

• Madhya Pradesh: 24.0 to 30.0°C, 41.0 to 47.0°C.

• Chhattisgarh: 25.0 to 31.0°C, 40.0 to 46.0°C.

East and North East India

Significant Weather Synopsis

• Western Disturbance trough on 200-500hpa.

• Moisture feeding southern winds from the Bay of Bengal on lower levels.

The prolonged pre-monsoon rains are expected to continue over most parts of the North East this week. Mainly moderate-intensity rainfall is expected in Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh, with isolated heavy rainfall events. Light to moderate rainfall is expected in Sikkim, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura.

Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning strikes, severe hail, and strong winds may impact some areas this week.

The remaining parts of east India like Odisha, West Bengal, and Bihar may see heatwave conditions this week, except sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Himalayan foothills of Bihar where thunderstorms are expected to occur.

Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature range till 30 April

• Bihar: 20.0 to 27.0°C, 39.0 to 44.0°C.

• Jharkhand: 24.0 to 32.0°C, 41.0 to 46.0°C.

• West Bengal: 25.0 to 31.0°C, 37.0 to 43.0°C.

•Odisha: 27.0 to 34.0°C, 41.0 to 46.0°C.

•North East India: 18.0 to 25.0°C, 26.0 to 34.0°C.

South India

Significant Weather Synopsis

• Dry northerly winds in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh.

• Lower-level Wind Discontinuity at the southern tip and Western Ghats.

The pattern of daily development of the convective clouds in the late afternoon to evening hours will lead to moderate-intensity rainfall and thunderstorms in scattered areas of Kerala, south-west Karnataka and western Tamil Nadu. It will also help in restricting rise in temperature over Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

Under the influence of dry and hot winds from north and central India, heatwave conditions are expected to grip most parts of Telangana and a few parts of Andhra Pradesh this week; maximum temperature may soar up to 45°C in the interiors.

Expected Minimum and Maximum Temperature range till 30 April

• Telangana: 25.0 to 31.0°C, 39.0 to 45.0°C.

• Andhra Pradesh: 25.0 to 32.0°C, 37.0 to 43.0°C.

•Goa: 26.0 to 28.0°C, 34.0 to 37.0°C.

• Karnataka: 21.0 to 26.0°C, 31.0 to 36.0°C.

• Tamil Nadu: 25.0 to 31.0°C, 34.0 to 39.0°C.

•Kerala: 22.0 to 25.0°C, 26.0 to 31.0°C.

The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.

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The weather report: How Delhi is all set to break all-time heatwave record for April
The weather report: How Delhi is all set to break all-time heatwave record for April
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