The Weather Report: No respite for North India from extreme heatwave yet; heavy rains pulverise North East

The heatwave is at the seasonal peak in North West India this week as parts of Rajasthan and Haryana are reporting maximum temperatures arou...

The heatwave is at the seasonal peak in North West India this week as parts of Rajasthan and Haryana are reporting maximum temperatures around 48-49°C which is extreme heat.

On Friday, Sirsa in Haryana recorded 48.8°C maximum temperature breaking its previous all-time record of highest maximum temperature in any month.

Similarly, parts of Rajasthan experienced severe heatwave conditions for over a week now and Friday was literally a Fry-day as maximum temperatures were 48.6°C at Dholpur, Ganganagar 48.1°C, Barmer 47.8°C, Bikaner 47.4°C, Churu 47.1°C and capital Jaipur 45.2°C respectively.

Interestingly, parts of Western Delhi were under influence of dry and hot Westerly winds and the temperature rose to 46.1°C at Najafgarh while South and East Delhi was under influence of Easterlies, the maximum temperature at Safdarjung was 42.5°C on Friday.

An auto rickshaw driver drinks water as he takes a break on a hot summer day in New Delhi. AFP

The heatwave continue to tighten its grip on Saturday when Banda in Uttar Pradesh reported 48.8 degrees maximum temperature, the highest in the country so far in this summer season.

Here is a complete list of the top 10 hottest places in the country on 15 May, 2022:

Top 10 Hottest Places in #India on 14 May:

1) Banda  48.8°C
2) Dholpur  48.5°C
3) Ganganagar 48.3°C
4) Bikaner  48.2°C
5) Karauli 47.9°C
6) Hanumangarh 47.8°C
7) Sirsa 47.8°C
8) Khajuraho 47.6°C
9) Nowgong 47.6°C
10) Churu  47.5°C

Under the influence of Cyclone Asani which had a significant impact on Southern India, places in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana, and West Bengal experienced rainfall activities in the past week.

Here is some significant single-day rainfall in parts of India last week:

Rainfall in Kerala between 10 May, 8:30 am - 11 May 8:30 am:

Poonjar 150.5mm
Thodupuzha 110.2mm
Idukki 104.8mm
Perumbavur 94.0mm
Kanjirappally 86.4mm
Vadakara 82.0mm
Peermade 81.5mm
Piravom 81.1mm
Quilandy 81.0mm
Chalakudy 76.6mm
Kozha 70.0mm
Aluva 55.0mm
Kochi 53.0mm
Vellanikkara 48.4mm

Andhra Pradesh rainfall between 11 May 8:30 am - 12 May 8:30 am:

Karedu 362.2mm
Shameera Palem 280.7mm
Anandapuram 278.7mm
Zarugumilli 278.5mm
Ulavapadu 276.5mm
Kandukur 252.5mm
Bogole 185.5mm
Tangutur 178.5mm
Nidamalur 168.5mm
Pokuru 162.0mm
Ravur 140.0mm
Kavali 124.0mm
Kolagani 120.0mm
Ongole 119.0mm

The pre-monsoon rains yet again turned out to be vigorous over North East India as Cyclone Asani pushed moist southerly winds leading to heavy to very heavy rainfall in North East India in the past week with extremely heavy rains were also reported from parts of Meghalaya.

Cheerapunji rain performance in the last five days:

14 May = 202.6mm
13 May = 212.6mm
12 May = 179.6mm
11 May = 64.2mm
10 May = 33.7mm

Mawsynram, in the same state, recorded 438.2mm of rainfall on 13 May, which is in a rough estimation, nearly 70 per cent of Delhi's annual rainfall falling in a single day.

Following is the IMD data on total pre-monsoon rains in India since 1 March till 14 May:

• India as a whole recorded a total of 78.9mm rainfall against the average of 95.1mm, departure from normal Stands at -17 per cent.

• Southern Peninsula: Actual 109.9mm against the average of 76.8mm, +43 per cent departure from normal.

• East & North East India: Actual 295.1mm against the average of 264.3mm, +12 per cent departure from normal.

• North West India: Actual 21.4mm against the average of 95.5mm, -78 per cent departure from normal.

• Central India: Actual 10.9mm against the average of 25.1mm, -57 per cent departure from normal.

Here is the all-India Weather Forecast for next week till 21 May:

• The countdown for the monsoon has started as the cross-equatorial flow strengthens in the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon is expected to make onset over South Andaman sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining the southeast Bay of Bengal either on Sunday or Monday.

Weather symbols. Image courtesy Peepo/Wikimedia Commons

• Due to strong south Westerly winds from Bay of Bengal to North East and adjoining East India and East West, running through from Bihar to central Assam at lower tropospheric levels widespread heavy to very heavy rains are expected in North East India and Sub Himalayan West Bengal throughout the next week.

• Nor westers are expected to continue in East India, and scattered thunderstorms, nail and strong winds are expected in Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh during the afternoon to late evening hours daily.

• Upcoming week is expected to be another quiet week for Central-West India as no significant rains are expected in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Days are likely to remain hot with maximum temperatures above 40°C at most stations.

• North India will experience heatwave conditions on Sunday as maximum temperature is expected to stay around or above 45°C in Delhi, Haryana and Rajasthan while above 40°C in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.

A Western Disturbance is expected to reach Western Himalayas by 16th May, Under the influence of the system, parts of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand will experience scattered moderate rains and hails from 16 to 21 May.

Parts of Punjab, Chandigarh and North Haryana may witness dust storm and isolated light to moderate rains as Western Disturbance have limited impacts in these areas.

Region-wise detailed weather forecast till 21 May:

North India:

Significant weather synopsis:

• Moderate Western Disturbance over the western Himalayas.

• Heatwave till Monday and abatement thereafter.

Rajasthan, and Haryana had witnessed their peak summer spell in the past week and it is expected to continue until Monday.

Under the influence of Western Disturbance dust storm, light to moderate rains may appear over Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan, Delhi and Western Uttar Pradesh on 16 and 17 May, meanwhile they may remain isolated in nature.

The following weather conditions are expected to drop the maximum temperature in the region by 2 to 4°C but humidity might add to the discomfort.

If we look into long-range weather outlooks, widespread pre-monsoon rains and dust storms are expected to impact most parts of North India plains by next weekend which could bring some significant relief from hot and humid weather in the region.

For the Himalayas, on and off rains, thundershowers and hailstorms will continue next week and one might observe rains getting heavy by next weekend and Western Disturbances are expected to get stronger.

Expected minimum and maximum temperature range forecast till 21 May:

• Punjab: 22.0 to 28.0°C, 37.0 to 43.0°C

• Haryana: 23.0 to 28.0°C, 39.0 to 44.0°C

• Rajasthan: 25.0 to 31.0°C, 39.0 to 45.0°C

• Delhi NCR: 22.0 to 28.0°C, 38.0 to 44.0°C

• Uttar Pradesh: 24.0 to 31.0°C, 37.0 to 45.0°C

Central India:

Significant weather synopsis:

• Dry and Hot North Western winds

• Some rains around Vidarbha and East Madhya Pradesh

Dry weather conditions will continue to dominate most parts of Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh and Western Maharashtra including Mumbai next week. The temperatures will remain slightly higher than normal.

Due to the lower level wind discontinuity, there is a possibility of isolated to scattered rains and thundershowers in the evening hours over East Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha in Maharashtra from 15 to 18 May.

Expected minimum and maximum temperature range forecast till 14 May:

• Gujarat: 26.0 to 32.0°C , 40.0 to 45.0°C

• Maharashtra: 23.0 to 31.0°C, 37.0 to 46.0°C

• Madhya Pradesh: 22.0 to 27.0°C, 38.0 to 44.0°C

• Chhattisgarh: 24.0 to 30.0°C, 37.0 to 44.0°C

East and North East India:

• Moisture feeding Southern Winds over the North East

• Lower level wind discontinuity in East India.

Under the influence of the weather systems, widespread heavy to very heavy rains are expected in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Manipur, Sikkim during the upcoming week.

Visual of destruction caused due to heavy rainfall in Assam. ANI

The estimated Average Rainfall Accumulation in the states next week till 21 May will be around 100mm.

Under the influence of the Lower level wind Discontinuity, Nor westers will be dominating East India Weather throughout next week. Parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal will witness daily evening storms which usually carry intense rains, strong winds sometimes up to 100 km/h and Hail storms.

South India:

Significant weather synopsis:

• Strong Westerly flow from the Arabian sea to the peninsula.

Widespread light to moderate rains, thundershowers and gusty winds are expected in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka along with heavy rains at the Scattered places during next 3 days.

Under the influence of lower level wind discontinuity, evening thunderstorms are expected in parts of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh during the next 5-6 days.

Expected rainfall accumulation in South India states till 21 May:

• Kerala: 100 - 250mm

• Karnataka: 70 - 120mm

• Tamil Nadu: 50 - 100mm

• Andhra Pradesh: 30 - 80mm

• Telangana: 20 - 50mm

The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.

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