New Delhi: In a shocking turn of events, India is grappling with its driest August in over 120 years, dating back to 1901, as the impact of El Niño takes a toll on the monsoon season. With only two days left in the month, the rainfall deficit has reached a staggering 33%, leaving the nation parched and raising concerns of a deficient monsoon season.
Monsoon monotony: A dire scenario
The ongoing month is poised to mark history as the driest August ever recorded. Countrywide rainfall has plummeted to a mere 160.3mm, significantly below the normal average of 241mm. This stark difference of 33% below the average indicates a distressing scenario where the monsoon is steering towards a substantial shortfall.
Monsoon misery continues
The situation worsened as weak monsoon conditions persisted, pushing the season’s overall rainfall deficit to a critical 9%, nearing the threshold of 10% that marks a deficient monsoon year. The responsibility of rescuing the situation now rests on the shoulders of September, with hopes pinned on weather models forecasting a revival.
Hope on the horizon
Weather experts have predicted a potential turnaround starting September 2, as a cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the north Bay of Bengal. This could escalate into a low-pressure system, potentially bringing much-needed rain to eastern, central, and southern regions of India.
El Niño and its ramifications
The overarching cause behind this rainfall anomaly is attributed to El Niño, which gained strength during the previous month, influencing atmospheric currents. Coupled with the absence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and an unfavorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the monsoon faced multiple setbacks. Additionally, fewer cyclones in the South China Sea limited their impact on enhancing Indian rainfall.
A silver lining in September
Despite the dismal August, there’s a glimmer of hope for September. Experts anticipate better rainfall compared to August, though El Niño’s influence remains. If the month concludes with a modest 5%-8% deficit, the overall monsoon season might narrowly escape being classified as deficient.
As India grapples with a record-breaking number of break days in August, the significance of these challenges underscores the nation’s reliance on a balanced monsoon for its agriculture and economy.
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