Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Congress is ‘close to the heart’ of Muslim voters of UP, the equation of votes gets spoiled in the fight between SP-BSP.

Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Mohammad Suleman of Mohanlalganj, a town in the capital Lucknow, says that his ancestors always Congress Had voted for, but ever since he grew up, he has been observing that bicycles are prevalent among Muslims. He doesn’t remember ever voting for Panje. Want to vote for Congress also, but what to do, it cannot win. What Suleman is saying is also the political reality. For the last 35 years, a large section of Muslim voters Samajwadi Party (SP) Has taken possession. Will there be any change this time? After 1989, there was such a turn in the politics of the state that Muslims left Congress and joined Mulayam and even now they stand with his son Akhilesh Yadav.

In response to the question whom will he vote for this time, Ikram, a voter from Lucknow, says that Congress is in alliance with Samajwadi Party and Muslims like Rahul Gandhi. Most Muslims will go with bicycles and claws only. He asks the question that do you know that SP and Congress are together this time? This means that a large part of Muslim voters will remain with the Congress and Samajwadi Party alliance.

Muslim voters took a turn after 1989

There was a time when Muslim voters stood behind Congress. But after 1989, the Muslim voters took such a turn that they left the Congress and joined the Samajwadi Party and since then, the Congress has made all efforts to somehow bring back its traditional votes, but it did not happen. Is getting.

The change that is visible this time becomes clear when we talk to Muslim voters. Muslim voters are with Congress wholeheartedly and since there is an alliance between Congress and SP, most of them also talk about going with it. But amid all this, Muslim voters also keep a close eye on which candidate and which party is the one who is giving tough competition to BJP. Then he sides with the one who is in a position to defeat BJP. Therefore, there is a competition among political parties to prove that their party can defeat BJP.

It is not very easy to understand this political maneuver. In the 2022 assembly elections, Muslim voters made a new strategy that at the entire state level, SP should go united with the alliance of RLD and other small parties, because there was a general belief that only this alliance is in a position to defeat BJP.

Therefore, instead of looking here and there, let us unite and go in favor of SP-RLD alliance. The result was that Samajwadi Party alliance got 125 seats and Congress and BSP were almost wiped out.

Analysis of election data shows that Muslim candidates of Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) did not get Muslim votes in their own villages. Will Muslim voters adopt the same strategy this time also? At present, this seems to be the attitude of Muslim voters.

Sitting at a tea stall in Mohan town of Unnao district, Mohammad Shahzad says that only Congress can save the country. Therefore Muslims will go in favor of Congress and SP. What will you do if BSP candidate is a Muslim? Shahzad says what to do, he will vote only for Congress and SP alliance and not for anyone else. Anybody can stand up.

The same stance was adopted by Muslim voters in the 2022 assembly elections also. But will the electoral equations change after RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary joins NDA in western Uttar Pradesh?

In fact, in many districts of Western Uttar Pradesh, the vote base of Samajwadi Party has been Muslim. With the help of RLD, it also got the support of a section of Jat voters, but after Jayant joining NDA, Jat voters will go with Narendra Modi, then will Samajwadi Party win the elections only on the strength of Muslim voters?

In Western Uttar Pradesh, the Dalit voters of Bahujan Samaj Party stand strongly with their party and their numbers are also high. Therefore, in order to defeat BJP, will Muslim voters not go with Bahujan Samaj Party?

This number is also large because in the civic elections held just a year ago, in a Muslim-dominated city like Saharanpur, the Muslim voters had gone with the Bahujan Samaj Party despite the SP candidate being in the fray, because with a large number of Dalit voters. The support of Muslim voters made the BSP candidate stronger.

Same situation prevailed in many bodies. Therefore, it is difficult to say with certainty that wherever a strong BSP candidate is seen, Muslim votes will not shift towards BSP. This is a different matter, both Samajwadi Party and Congress are sure that Muslim voters will come towards their alliance only and there is no reason to go with anyone else.

‘BSP is BJP’s B-team’

A SP leader says that which Muslim does not know that Bahujan Samaj Party is the ‘B team’ of Bharatiya Janata Party and that is why it is going to unite and support the SP-Congress alliance. SP’s claim is true to some extent, because there are many doubts in the minds of Muslims regarding BSP. But despite this, the fight between SP and BSP for Muslim votes will be fierce.

In fact, before 1989, Muslim voters were with Congress, but when the foundation stone of Ram Janmabhoomi temple was laid with the permission of the Central Government of Congress, the situation changed after that. VP Singh, who had rebelled against the Congress, raised this issue very strongly and the Muslim voters went with the Janata Dal in the 1989 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.

In 1991, Muslim voters went with Mulayam Singh Yadav and Janata Dal. But after the fall of Babri Masjid, an alliance was formed between SP and BSP in 1993 and Muslim voters unilaterally went with this alliance.

In 1995, BSP separated from the Mulayam government and Mayawati herself became the Chief Minister with the help of BJP. After this, there was a tug of war between SP and BSP regarding Muslim voters. In the Lok Sabha elections of 1998 and 1999, Muslim voters went with SP. From then till now the attitude of Muslim voters has been with SP. Wherever BSP has a Muslim candidate and there is a possibility of his winning, that Muslim vote went towards BSP only.

Meanwhile, Congress kept making all efforts to bring Muslim voters to its side once again. Shamshad, an expert in politics, says that Congress is close to his heart, but Congress can get votes only if it brings its other old vote bank back into its fold.

Once upon a time, Brahmins and Dalits were with Congress, but now Brahmins are with BJP and a part of Dalits are with Mayawati. Therefore why should Muslims go alone and waste their votes? Muslims also go with Samajwadi Party because it is also fighting against BJP. What will happen in this election? This fight is very interesting.

Muslim voters in western Uttar Pradesh will go with the Congress-SP alliance or will also change the strategy in some seats where BSP will be seen fighting well. At present, it seems that if the SP and Congress alliance is not seen fighting a strong fight in Western Uttar Pradesh and BSP is seen fighting well on some seats, then it will not be surprising if Muslim voters go with BSP.

There is no doubt about it, Muslim voters in Central and Eastern Uttar Pradesh are seen with SP and Congress and that too because the alliance already has its vote base in this area.

The post Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Congress is ‘close to the heart’ of Muslim voters of UP, the equation of votes gets spoiled in the fight between SP-BSP. appeared first on IndiaPost Live